Recalling Governors Is All The Rage This Year

Recall elections were once a rarely used, “break glass in case of emergency” tool to remove politicians from office. But now, several factors have conspired to make this the most active decade for recall elections in U.S. history — and there may be more to come in the next several months. Out of 19 states […]

Can You Tell Sports Commentary From Political Punditry? We Couldn’t.

The game was supposed to be simple: I read a quote, you tell me if the quote was from either a sports broadcast or a political discussion about the first two 2020 Democratic debates. Almost every staff member I pitched it to here at FiveThirtyEight was confident they would ace it. “I’m gonna get all […]

Many Americans Think Economic Inequality Is A Problem — Just Not The Most Pressing One

“Grotesque” is how Sen. Bernie Sanders has described the level of wealth inequality in the U.S., and he’s not the only Democrat running a presidential campaign that relies heavily on this idea. Sen. Elizabeth Warren has called the economy “rigged.” And Sen. Cory Booker has said, “We can no longer accept racial and economic disparity […]

Americans Are More Worried About White Nationalism After El Paso

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll of the week After the deadly mass shooting at a Walmart in El Paso, Texas, this month, more Americans now describe white nationalism as a serious threat to the United States, according to a new HuffPost/YouGov poll. Compared to the last time the poll asked this question, […]

John Hickenlooper’s Presidential Campaign Is Over. Can He Flip A Senate Seat Instead?

Another passenger has boarded the S.S. Winnow: On Thursday, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper announced he was dropping out of the race for president. Many of the problems we identified with Hickenlooper’s campaign when he first entered the race ended up coming true. He lacked a geographic or demographic base, and he proved unable to […]

Politics Podcast: Trump’s Trade War Puts His Best Asset — The Economy — At Risk

By Galen Druke Embed Code While President Trump has remained nationally unpopular with a negative net approval rating, his approval on the economy has been consistently better. But as concerns over Trump’s trade war with China drive the stock market’s volatility, the president appears to be risking one of his greatest assets. In this installment […]

Are Biden’s Opponents Being Too Coy In Making Age An Issue?

After a week’s worth of media focus on a series of gaffes and misstatements by former Vice President Joe Biden, Democratic voters are reacting by … apparently not giving much of a damn. Granted, there hasn’t been a ton of polling this week. But what data we have looks just fine for Biden. His position […]

Voters Care About Biden’s Age — Not About His Gaffes

After a week’s worth of media focus on a series of gaffes and misstatements by former Vice President Joe Biden, Democratic voters are reacting by … apparently not giving much of a damn. Granted, there hasn’t been a ton of polling this week. But what data we have looks just fine for Biden. His position […]

Why Democrats Might Be Slow To Endorse A Candidate For President This Year

While President Trump didn’t totally upend the “the party decides” theory that endorsements from political leaders can help a candidate win his or her party’s presidential nomination (it remained useful, for instance, in understanding how Hillary Clinton became her party’s nominee), his success did prompt some rethinking about how our political and media environments have […]

Americans Are Sad About Politics. Who Could Blame Them?

Sometimes I wonder what I would be thinking about all day if I weren’t thinking all day about politics. I sort of fell into this line of work. I wanted to write for a living and to live in a city where my friends were, which turned out to be Washington, D.C. I was less […]