Warren’s Rise Hasn’t Come At Biden’s Expense

We’ve been busy the past few weeks tracking public opinion on impeachment, launching our new NBA metric (RAPTOR!) and dealing with about a million breaking news alerts a day. So I’m not going to give you one of those grandiose overviews of the Democratic primary. Maybe we’ll be more in the mood for one after […]

The Latest Polling On Impeachment — And Where It Could Go From Here

What do Americans think about impeachment after a week of new evidence on the Ukraine scandal? We examine the polls and look at what might change opinions in the coming days, from new subpoenas to the arrest of two associates of Rudy Giuliani, President Trump’s personal lawyer. See more: Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump?

The Democratic Primary Looks Pretty Different In Each Of The Early States

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll of the week Earlier this week, I looked at national surveys to see what’s behind Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s rise in the polls, but now let’s zoom in on the early primary states — Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina — to see what’s happening there. This […]

How Impeachment Is Being Spun

Welcome to The Spin Cycle, a semi-regular look at how the impeachment inquiry is being sold to the American public by Washington-types — both those who are looking to oust the president and those looking to save him. The most marked quality of the last three years of American political life is the sheer number […]

Can A Democrat Get Reelected Governor In Louisiana?

A lot of things are unusual about Louisiana’s governor election. There’s the timing (the election is tomorrow, Oct. 12 — a Saturday) and the rules (there may or may not be a second round of voting in November). But perhaps most unusual is the fact that a state as red as Louisiana already has a […]

Politics Podcast: How Impeachment Is Supposed To Work

By Galen Druke Embed Code <iframe frameborder=”0″ width=”100%” height=”180″ style=”margin:20px auto 25px;max-width:600px;” scrolling=”no” src=”https://fivethirtyeight.com/player/politics/27815591/”></iframe> With impeachment news coming so quickly, we thought it would be good to go back to basics with a little Impeachment 101. To do that, we brought in Cardozo School of Law professor and ABC News contributor Kate Shaw. In this […]

Republican Control In The States Hasn’t Stopped The Growth Of Government

Five states will hold elections this November for governor or state legislature — and a lot seems to be on the line. In the Louisiana gubernatorial race, a Republican victory would mean total GOP control of the state government; similarly, in Virginia, Democrats could take total control with just a few more legislative victories. And […]

What Happened When 2.2 Million People Were Automatically Registered To Vote

As recently as 2015, automatic voter registration did not exist in the United States. Yet today, 16 states plus the District of Columbia have enacted (though in several cases, not yet implemented) some version of AVR. Almost overnight, it has become a core part of the agenda for those who want to make it easier […]

What Would Happen If American Voters All Got Together And Talked Politics?

There is a story that Stanford University political science professor Jim Fishkin likes to tell about George Gallup, the man who helped popularize public opinion polling in America. After the 1936 presidential election — which Gallup’s polling correctly called for Franklin D. Roosevelt — Gallup delivered a lecture at Princeton in which he argued that […]

Two Weeks In, Impeachment Is Becoming More Popular

It’s been a little over two weeks since Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced an impeachment inquiry into President Trump and two damning documents were released that highlight Trump’s efforts to get Ukraine to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden. In response to this, we launched an impeachment polling tracker to track how much support impeaching the […]